Iran war: What NZ Navy could do in conflict, how to clear the Strait of Hormuz, and who’s winning
New Zealand’s Navy is capable of doing some damage in the Middle East but would face trouble today from Iranian drones, a political analyst and Navy veteran says.
The United States has urged allies and friends to help clear the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint for the global oil supply on which New Zealand and Australia depend.
“A frigate could go and has gone in the past. They’ve done counter-piracy ... so they know the region,” said Professor Steve Hoadley, a US Navy veteran.
But those previous excursions did not involve combat with another state.
“There are missiles flying everywhere, there are drones. That is something that New Zealand would find very challenging. The Government would be very reluctant to enter into a war ... unless there was a compelling reason to do so,” Hoadley said.
New Zealand’s frigates are HMNZS Te Kaha and HMNZS Te Mana and have five-inch 54mm calibre guns with a range of 20 nautical miles, or 37km.
“So they could be used for shore bombardment of the Iranian missile positions,” said Hoadley, a retired University of Auckland teacher and honorary captain in the Royal New Zealand Navy.
He said Iran’s regime remnants were keeping some drones hidden in caves or bunkers.
A joint mission with the Royal Australian Navy might be more effective at clearing the strait for shipping.
The Royal Australian Navy had three guided missile destroyers, with air defence, surface warfare, surveillance and undersea warfare capabilities.
Those Hobart-class destroyers had torpedoes, and missiles capable of speeds greater than Mach 4.
Hoadley said those ships were air defence destroyers.
“That air defence is exactly what you need in the Gulf, because the attacks on the tankers are coming from the air.”
The frigates each had a Kaman SH-2G Super Seasprite helicopter.
The Royal NZ Navy said those helicopters had torpedoes, depth charges, air-to-ship missiles and M60 machine guns.
The Australian destroyers had MH-60R-Seahawk helicopters, with Hellfire air-to-surface missiles, torpedoes and the “Advanced Precision Kill Weapons System”, which could fire rockets at targets.
“The helicopters are more useful for surveillance and counter-submarine work,” Hoadley said.
Clearing the strait
Hoadley said some merchant marine commentators and naval experts viewed clearing the Strait of Hormuz as almost impossible.
“They all say the same thing: sure, you can have escorts and get the tankers going but it only takes one drone to get through to set a supertanker on fire.”
That ship could then be uncontrollable and pose a hazard to other shipping.
The risks were unacceptable to some big insurance companies, he said.
“The main problem is not the physical escort, it’s the insurance ... People are calling this an insurance war. The ship owner will simply not move and take the risk.”
US President Donald Trump has promised to provide US$20 billion ($34b) of reinsurance.
Hoadley said that was a positive move but more diplomatic activity was probably needed to resolve the insurance issues.
Saudi Arabia
While the role of Israel in the war has been demonstrated, that of Saudi Arabia is arguably more opaque.
The Washington Post said Saudi leader Mohammed bin Salman made multiple private phone calls to Trump pushing for a US attack.
Saudi Arabia has faced some attacks from Iran but has not struck back.
“Maybe there’s a political dimension there, that they don’t want to help the ‘Zionists’. The Arab street is not very pro-Israel and not very pro-Trump.”
Hoadley said Saudi Arabia was possibly contributing intelligence to the anti-Iran forces.
“They certainly are not hostile. They’re not expelling the US.”
But the Saudis had not yet allowed the US to use their airfields as take-off points for strikes on Iran, Hoadley said.
He said Saudi leaders needed plausible deniability and had to pursue a political narrative to keep credibility with anti-Israel sentiment.
Air Force Hercules
On March 7, New Zealand’s Defence Force sent a C-130J-30 Super Hercules overseas in case New Zealanders stranded by the conflict had to be evacuated from war zones.
The NZDF said two of the Hercules were positioned “in the region” and ready to assist.
Last Friday it said one of the aircraft was returning to New Zealand as some commercial flights were able to get people out of the Middle East.
The location of the other Super Hercules was not immediately disclosed and it was not apparent how far from New Zealand it travelled.
Hoadley said sending the aircraft abroad was probably done with a sincere desire to help, but getting it close to the war zone was never going to be easy.
The NZDF has been approached for comment.
Pete Hegseth
US Secretary of War Pete Hegseth has at times gleefully described US military prowess.
He said all senior leadership jobs with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) were “temp jobs” and added: “We’ve decided to share the ocean with Iran. We’ve given them the bottom half.”
“He is simply a manifestation or an exaggeration of Donald Trump,” Hoadley said of the former Fox & Friends Weekend co-host.
“He was chosen because he had that persona on Fox News. He is out-Trumping Trump.”
He said Hegseth stood in contrast to US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who appeared “to have a bit of a brain and some constraint”.
Hoadley said Hegseth was useful in having the ability to say outrageous things that the President could either agree with or deny.
But he said Hegseth’s role might be a temp job too.
“One day, Pete will be thrown under the bus, like many of Trump’s colleagues are, when he’s no longer useful. He’s an expendable bullet.”
NZ energy independence
New Zealand imports all its refined oil. About 48%-51% of fuel imports are from South Korea and 31%-33% from Singapore.
Would the current crisis inspire politicians to make New Zealand less dependent on imported oil products?
Hoadley said New Zealand politics prioritised short-term sloganeering over long-term planning.
“I’m pessimistic there’ll be any fundamental change at all. The political will is simply not there.”
Who’s winning?
“The Iranians are winning by not losing. Israel and the US are losing by not winning,” Hoadley said.
But he added: “It depends on your definition of winning” and the Trump administration had trotted out multiple different rationales for the war.
Hoadley said if the ultimate goal was to replace the Iranian theocracy and install a compliant regime, the US and Israel were not winning.
He said the IRGC had permeated many parts of Iran’s regime and society: “It’s like a cancer that has metastasised”.
He expected a messy standoff, with a partial opening for shipping in the Strait of Hormuz.
“Some will take the chance and sneak through at night with their transponders switched off.”
Hoadley said the Iranians would likely keep letting Chinese and Indian vessels through.
“We know Iran is not going to attack anyone in the conventional sense. Their military is gone.
“We’re all now focused on energy and prices and getting the tankers out of the Gulf.”
John Weekes is a business journalist covering aviation and courts. He previously covered consumer affairs, crime, politics and courts.
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