Media Insider: 26 predictions for New Zealand media in 2026 (and how our 2025 predictions fared)

Checklist on our 25 hot takes for ‘25

• At least one major media platform will close or be swallowed up by another industry player. VERDICT: CORRECT. Sky TV’s acquisition of Warner Bros Discovery’s Three (TV3) in a $1 debt-free deal was one of the biggest media stories of the year.
• Cost-cutting and other tight cost controls will continue to be the norm until the economy bounces back in the latter half of 2025. CORRECT. There were layoffs at NZME earlier in the year, and tight cost controls at all media companies throughout. By the end of the year, NZME had upgraded its operating EBITDA guidance; Sky TV’s share price was reaching record five-year highs, touching $3.60.
• A very high-profile TV broadcaster will leave their position. CORRECT. Simon Dallow finished up as TVNZ 6pm newsreader in late November, after almost two decades in the hot seat.
• Now that it has organised itself into two separate businesses, Stuff will sell its masthead publishing division - including The Press and The Post newspapers and associated digital subscription business. NZME tops a shortlist of potential buyers. INCORRECT/NOT YET. Stuff has been open to offers, NZME has been open to investment and there were talks earlier in the year. We’ll push this one out to 2026.
• That leaves Stuff as a digital-only business - allowing a business like Trade Me to partner up or buy it, partly to offset the rise and rise of NZME’s OneRoof property portal. CORRECT. Trade Me announced in June that it was acquiring 50% of Stuff Digital.
• An interesting new shareholder will emerge for NZME. CORRECT. Businessman Jim Grenon has slowly and steadily built his holdings in NZME to just under 18.5% - along the way, he led a push for major changes at board level, and he became a director himself.
• The future business shape of Warner Bros Discovery and MediaWorks remains clouded, especially with global owners for whom New Zealand might not be a top priority. CORRECT ON BOTH. Warner Bros Discovery’s Three was sold to Sky, and MediaWorks was split into two, with its outdoor advertising business renamed QMS. Both it and the radio arm are on the block.
• Sky TV will secure the All Blacks’ broadcasting rights and be subject to a takeover, with British-based DAZN a possible buyer. TVNZ, NZME or Stuff will scoop up other rights for rugby matches not covered by the Sky deal. HALF CORRECT. Sky won the rights and TVNZ won secondary rights (including live NPC matches), but Sky remains publicly listed - for now.
• NZME and Stuff will double down on video, causing more revenue headaches for traditional broadcasters. CORRECT. NZME launched Herald NOW; Stuff’s video charge continues to be led by its production of the ThreeNews bulletin for Sky TV/Three.
• The Government will show little urgency to stand up to global tech giants, keeping the Fair Digital News Bargaining Bill on hold, while the Australian government powers ahead with its own laws that even the playing field. CORRECT. Sadly.
• AI will revolutionise media in 2025 by automating content creation, enhancing personalised recommendations and enabling synthetic media like virtual actors. It will streamline production, improve ad targeting and boost immersive AR/VR experiences. However, challenges like deepfake misuse, misinformation and job displacement will require robust ethical regulations and safeguards. [Disclaimer: ChatGPT wrote those three sentences.] CORRECT (again, according to ChatGPT, which states its 2025 prediction was largely on target about the nature of AI’s influence — automation, enhanced capabilities, and ethical challenges).
• RNZ will continue to insist it’s the most trusted media organisation; TVNZ will continue to insist it’s the most trusted media organisation. A raft of media trust surveys will throw up all sorts of different results. Can you trust the media trust surveys? CORRECT. The different methodologies of myriad trust surveys are leading to some varied results for individual media brands.
• Auckland Transport will continue to dither on outdoor advertising contracts – no good for ratepayers or the outdoor media companies that it has mucked around for almost two years. CORRECT. But like a slow bus in Auckland rush-hour traffic, we got there eventually.
• Advertising agencies – especially the big ones that fall under the Omnicom and IPG umbrellas – will be subject to cost-cutting in New Zealand. CORRECT. The merger was officially sealed in late 2025. We’re awaiting to hear the specific extent of cutbacks, but already the DDB and FCB agencies are for the scrapheap. In New Zealand, the two agencies will now be known as McCann.
• The Spinoff will have early success with reader donations. Longer term, donation models will continue to be stressed. Expect more media companies to introduce hard paywalls; CORRECT on the first points, INCORRECT on the last (for now).
• The Government will merge NZ on Air and the Film Commission; INCORRECT. Too much hard work for a Government which has other priorities.
• A media chief executive will leave their role; INCORRECT in terms of the ‘big six’ media companies; CORRECT in terms of the broader industry (farewell, for example, to Nick Vile, of Oohmedia and Nigel Douglas of OMD).
• Newstalk ZB cements its spot as the number one radio station;Simon Barnett helps haul More FM from number five to number three by the end of the year. CORRECT on ZB, PARTLY CORRECT on More (it’s third in the commercial ratings but fourth when you take into account publicly owned RNZ).
• Facebook, devoid of any fact-checking principles or processes, becomes an even bigger hellhole, with corporates deserting the platform en masse in fear of ‘brand safety’; CORRECT on the hellhole, INCORRECT on the corporates.
• RNZ solidifies its position as the third biggest news website in New Zealand behind Stuff and the NZ Herald, but its traditional radio ratings continue to languish; CORRECT on the website, but the radio ratings – after a poor first survey – have enjoyed an uptick in the next two, so INCORRECT on those.
• Every media, PR, marketing and advertising firm will trumpet themselves as the greatest in the world amid a swag of award ceremonies. The Voyager Awards will cut back its number of categories, in light of there not being enough journalists left to enter. CORRECT on the first prediction, INCORRECT on the second.
• The performances of TVNZ and RNZ will come under even closer scrutiny from central Government – some in the coalition will question the need to own a television network that does not return a dividend. CORRECT (although TVNZ did return a dividend in 2025, for the first time in three years);
• An outdoor company will be acquired by another media company. CORRECT. Lumo acquired GloBox.
• Prime Minister Christopher Luxon will skip Q&A – not a good look; Chris Hipkins will at least front Q&A but it also won’t be a good look. CORRECT on Luxon; You be the judge on Hipkins.
• About 20% of these predictions will be correct. INCORRECT! A 76% success rate (give or take) – better than Scott Robertson’s All Black coaching record (at this stage).

• NZX-listed Sky TV will be subject to a takeover, with a private equity bid. Although Sky’s share price hit peaks of $3.60 this year – a five-year high – analysts and commentators believe the company is still undervalued and prime for acquisition.
• TVNZ will be primed for sale - possibly alongside (or with) Whakaata Māori (Māori Television). The National Party will campaign at the 2026 general election on the partial or full sale of Government assets, with the publicly owned but commercially funded TVNZ specifically on the list.
• Shareholder and director Jim Grenon will consider a full takeover bid for NZME, and Trade Me will be thinking the same about Stuff Digital - one of these scenarios will unfold.
• The QMS outdoor advertising company will be sold – likely to Australia’s Nine - while its sister MediaWorks radio stations (including The Breeze, The Rock and More FM) will be sold to an Australian radio operator.
• BusinessmanTroy Bowker becomes a major thorn in the side of Stuff in 2026, following his acquisition in 2025 of the property that houses the publishing company’s Wellington print plant. Stuff has two options if it wants to renew its lease on the Petone plant – pay a much heftier rent, or face huge costs (millions) to remove its plant equipment and restore the building to a fit state for a future tenant.
• Only once/if that spicy meatball is sorted, or there is legal comfort, NZME and Stuff will come to an agreement over the acquisition of Stuff Masthead Publishing.
• RNZ will come under extra, intense scrutiny from Treasury and the Government over its operational performance and the way it is managing its taxpayer-funded budget.
• With their terms up (and after years of loyal service), it is anticipated that RNZ chair Jim Mather and directors Jane Wrightson and Irene Gardiner will not be renewed for new stints on the RNZ board – leading to a major redirection for the public broadcaster. Director Brent Impey will become chair; expect executive changes by the end of 2026.
• Both Newstalk ZB and RNZ will enjoy ratings boosts in the lead-up to a hotly contested 2026 general election; Mike Hosking will outpace John Campbell in the breakfast radio ratings.
• Magazine publisher Are Media (Listener, Woman’s Weekly, Woman’s Day) will remain under the ownership of Mercury Capital, despite attempts at a sale.
• A new, distinctly Kiwi-focused magazine will enter the New Zealand market.
• Independent New Zealand media and advertising agencies will showcase their own skills and seize upon the uncertainty of job losses and cost cuts at the big global holding companies to claim some of New Zealand’s biggest accounts, including ANZ, Westpac and The Warehouse Group.
• Tina from Turners will remain NZ’s favourite advertisement, and one of the most effective.
• Warner Bros Discovery’s HBO content will leave Sky TV/Neon mid-year, regardless of the outcome of the Netflix v Paramount battle for ownership of WBD.
• A top sports broadcasting name and voice will step down from their role.
• At least one local outdoor advertising firm will be acquired by another major media player.
• NBR will take legal action against IRD over the way the tax department has shared paywalled stories with staff; IRD will settle out of court, paying damages and legal fees.
• Stuff will drop the contract to produce the 6pm ThreeNews, unless it and Sky TV come to a bigger monetary sum for the contract, and/or a revenue-share arrangement.
• NZME and Sky will confirm a deal for Ryan Bridge’s Herald NOW show to screen on Three Now (and eventually TV3) – leading to a rejuvenated and much-scrutinised new ratings battle with TVNZ’s Breakfast, led by a freshly installed co-host, Tova O’Brien.
• The BSA will lose its jurisdictional legal battle with Sean Plunket’s The Platform, but the case will finally force the Government into moving ahead with a proposal for a new super regulator. That will be the sole piece of media regulation in 2026.
• TVNZ and Sky TV will engage in a massive battle for the Rugby World Cup rights.
• Podcasts will play a critical role in the 2026 election campaign, but leaders of various parties will face heat for declining interviews on mainstream media platforms they deem ‘unfriendly’ (aka avoiding tough questions).
• Nadia Tolich (TVNZ) and Pip Keane (RNZ) will be hailed for their leadership in their new executive roles - both are destined for even bigger things.
• A New Zealand film will be nominated for the 2027 Oscars.
• An employment dispute between former Breakfast host Kamahl Santamaria and TVNZ will play out in court - and create widespread media and public interest.
• A top-tier marketing executive will step down from their role in the corporate world.

The 10 best-read Media Insider articles in 2025

1. TVNZ loses another top journalist - Katie Bradford to depart
2. Breakfast upheaval - why Jenny-May Clarkson’s time is up
3. Top reporters leave TVNZ, likely new cuts emerge
4. Sudden departure: Tearful RNZ host signs off with immediate effect
5. Christopher Luxon’s difficult interview with Mike Hosking: ‘You’ve made a complete meal of this’
6. 6pm swansong - Simon Dallow set to step down from newsreading role
7. Radio upheaval: Station drops hosts, to play music only
8. ‘The whole ad is a disgrace to Kiwis’: Complaint upheld over Tina from Turner’s ad
9. ‘Brutal’: David Seymour v Guy Williams in verbal stoush
10. ‘Real story coming’: Unauthorised Jacinda Ardern book - who’s behind it and who’s been interviewed

The 10 highest-engaged Media Insider articles

1. Unauthorised Jacinda Ardern book - author opens up
2. ‘Brutal’: David Seymour v Guy Williams in verbal stoush
3. TVNZ comeback! Paul Henry joins TVNZ board in major shake-up
4. Picky picky - 25 of New Zealand’s oddest ad complaints
5. ‘Tabloid clickbait’: Insider Philip Polkinghorne’s fight with documentary makers
6. Savage review: Who can save RNZ ratings and CEO’s legacy?
7. David Seymour v John Campbell: Act leader turns camera on TVNZ newsman
8. Inside the NZME shareholders’ meeting as agitator Jim Grenon fronts up
9. Ad battle - Is Briscoe’s Lady on the move? Tom Phillips injunction: Ex TV journo v media
10. Hit piece or honest opinion: Peter Williams takes the stand for evangelist in Jim Grenon-funded defamation case against TVNZ

The 10 Media Insider stories that drew in the most subscribers

1. Eye in a storm: Former Real Housewife calls in lawyers after magazine editor’s email
2. Simon Dallow’s final ‘good night and good luck’ - the rise of a 6pm newsman
3. Breakfast upheaval - why Jenny-May Clarkson’s time is up
4. Radio battle - can Simon Barnett halt More FM’s ratings slide?
5. Sudden departure: Tearful RNZ host signs off with immediate effect
6. ‘Some people shouldn’t be on air’ - RNZ review urges new talent
7. TVNZ loses another top journalist - Katie Bradford to depart
8. Radio upheaval: Station drops hosts, to play music only
9. ‘Brutal’: David Seymour v Guy Williams in verbal stoush
10. ‘F***ing asshole’: Newspaper publisher and council candidate’s expletive-laden rant about councillor

Media leaders on the year ahead

Stuart Dick, general manager NZ, Are Media

Susana Guttenbeil, GM of content, Pacific Media Network

Todd Scott, co-owner and publisher, National Business Review