Election 2026: National trails Labour on key cost-of-living issue, but gaining ground as Government sees rating rebound
Prime Minister Christopher Luxon's Government saw a rebound in its rating – but it's still below a pass mark. Photo / Mark Mitchell
The National Party is closing the gap on Labour in the battle to convince New Zealanders it’s best-placed to deal with voters’ top concerns, but Chris Hipkins’ opposition party remains out in front for managing the majority of issues.
The first election-year Ipsos NZ Issues Monitor shows a sea of red when it comes to which party Kiwis back as being the most capable to handle their most-pressing concerns. Labour is ahead or equal on 15 of 20 issues, compared to just three for National.
But Christopher Luxon’s National is gaining some ground, such as in the cost-of-living issue, a key battleground for the upcoming November election.
The Government’s performance rating has also rebounded slightly. It received a rating of 4.2 out of 10, which is up from the 3.9 it scored in October. The ruling coalition has never got above 4.7, the rating it received in late 2024.
The survey, obtained exclusively by the Herald, tracks the issues New Zealanders are most concerned about and which political party they think is best to deal with them.
Inflation/the cost of living continues to be the top issue for New Zealanders, as it has been for four years now, with 59% of participants identifying it.
But Ipsos said concern over the cost of living appears to be stabilising, after an upward trend throughout 2025. It’s down on a peak of 65% in February 2023.
While consumer price index data released in January showed inflation at 3.1% – outside of the target 1% to 3% band – the Reserve Bank moderated concerns in February when it said it was confident it would fall.
According to the Ipsos results, Labour is viewed as the party most capable of managing the cost of living by 35% of participants, down from 36% in the survey conducted last October.
National is making some headway, however, with 28% backing the centre-right party. That’s up from 24% late last year, closing the gap with Labour from 12 points to seven.
On this issue, the Greens were chosen by 6% of people, NZ First by 5%, Act by 4%, Te Pāti Māori by 1%, and another party by 1%. The rest didn’t know or said none.
Healthcare/hospitals is the second most important issue for New Zealanders, mentioned by 38% of people. It remains the most important issue for New Zealanders aged over 65.
Labour continues to be dominant in the health space, selected by 37% of people, which is down from 40% in October. National has narrowed the divide here as well, increasing its support from 21% to 25%.
Elsewhere, the Greens were named by 6%, NZ First by 5%, Act by 4%, Te Pāti Māori by 1%, and another party by 1%. The rest didn’t know or said none.
The economy, an issue for 33% of people, is the closest race among the top five and an issue which is on the rise.
National and Labour are tied here on 32%, with National having jumped from 29% in October’s survey while Labour fell from 33%.
They are followed by NZ First on 5%, the Greens and Act each on 4%, Te Pāti Māori on 1%, and another party on 1%. The rest didn’t know or said none.
The fourth issue was housing/price of housing, which Ipsos noted appeared to be rebounding slightly as a concern after a big drop in October.
The housing market has been in the doldrums for the past few years as high interest rates put people off wanting to invest. While cuts to the Official Cash Rate (OCR) were expected to support a recovery, recent data shows the market is still yet to pick up.
To manage housing, Labour was chosen by 34% of participants (up from 32%), and National by 24% (up from 21%).
Rounding out the top five is crime/law and order. This was mentioned as an issue by 20% of participants, well down from its peak of 40% in May 2023.
The Government – as recently as last week – has highlighted a reduction in victims of violent crime since it took office.
It’s boasted that positive results are partly down to the likes of its gang laws and rolling out beat officers in major centres. As the Herald has reported, crime data can be cherry-picked to fit certain narratives.
This is one of the few issues National is viewed as the most capable to handle. It fielded the support of 34% of people (up from 30%), compared to Labour’s 27% (up from 25%).
Carin Hercock, Ipsos New Zealand’s country manager, said it was clear inflation, healthcare and the economy were the issues New Zealanders would be assessing political parties against this election year.
“The battleground is firmly set, with a neck-and-neck race on capability of managing the economy,” said Hercock.
Other noteworthy issues highlighted by Ipsos included education, which it said had “dropped significantly” as an issue (from 11% in October to 8% now). It’s no longer within the top 10 issues.
The Government has placed emphasis on the “basics” in education, prioritising core reading, writing and math skills. It’s faced some pushback from schools and unions for the scale of its change programme, which includes the dumping of the NCEA qualification.
The top 10 now includes petrol prices/fuel on 9%, up from 7%.
Despite the recent weather events and talk from politicians about improving resilience, climate change has remained steady as an issue. It’s mentioned by 15% of people, the eighth highest issue.
Immigration has also gained some prominence in the Ipsos survey, up from 5% to 8%, moving up four spots.
It’s been an issue in the headlines recently, including due to NZ First’s concerns the proposed India Free Trade Agreement could lead to “tens of thousands” of people coming here.
In a Herald interview last year, NZ First’s Winston Peters raised concern with the number of migrants entering New Zealand and believed the issue was troubling Kiwis.
“There are some surprises in the issues rated as less important by New Zealanders,” said Ipsos New Zealand executive director public affairs Amanda Dudding.
“Immigration is an issue to watch, jumping four places up the ranking to just sit outside the top 10, and no change for climate change as an issue given the devastating impacts of severe weather events this summer.”
Issues and the parties most capable of managing them
1 – Inflation/cost of living – Labour
2 – Healthcare/hospitals – Labour
3 - The economy – Labour/National
4 - Housing/price of housing – Labour
5- Crime/law and order – National
6 - Unemployment – Labour
7 - Poverty/inequality – Labour
8 - Climate change – Greens
9= Drug/alcohol abuse - Labour
9= Petrol prices/fuel – Labour
11 = Education - Labour
11 = Immigration - Labour
13 = Environmental pollution/water concerns – Greens
13 = Household debt/personal debt – Labour
15 = Race relations/racism – Labour
15 = Transport/public transport/infrastructure – Labour
17 = Taxation – Labour
17 = Issues facing Māori – Te Pāti Māori
19 = Population/overpopulation – Labour
19 = Defence/foreign affairs/terrorism – National
The study was conducted using online research panels between February 11 and 18, with 1000 New Zealanders aged 18 and older representing the adult New Zealand population. Quotas were set to ensure representativeness.
The precision of Ipsos online surveys is calculated using a credibility interval. Here, the total New Zealand results have a credibility interval of +/-3.5 percentage points.
Jamie Ensor is the NZ Herald’s Chief Political Reporter, based in the Press Gallery at Parliament. He was previously a TV reporter and digital producer in the Newshub Press Gallery office. He was a finalist in 2025 for Political Journalist of the Year at the Voyager Media Awards.