Fresh political poll suggests coalition would lose power if election held today
New polling suggests if an election were held today, the coalition Government would be knocked from power amid swirling speculation of discontent within the National Party.
That’s according to fresh figures from the 1News-Verian poll, which are based on the assumption Te Pāti Māori retains its six Māori electorate seats to boost the left bloc.
The polling has National on 30%, down 4 points, and Labour on 37%, up by 5 points.
The Green Party remained steady on 11%, as did New Zealand First on 10%.
Act dropped from 9% to 7%. Te Pāti Māori was steady on 2%.
In the preferred Prime Minister rankings, Christopher Luxon recorded his worst result since becoming National Party leader, dropping 4 points to 16%.
Labour leader Chris Hipkins dropped one point but remained higher than Luxon on 19%.
New Zealand First leader Winston Peters was up 2 points to 12% and Green Party co-leader Chlöe Swarbrick was up one point to 6%. Act leader David Seymour remained steady on 4%.
And senior National minister Chris Bishop, rumoured as a potential leadership contender, was up one point in the 1News-Verian poll’s preferred Prime Minister rankings to 2%.
The fresh polling comes as Luxon is set to face what could be the most difficult few weeks of his term as leader after Herald reporting revealed discontent within the party and a potential leadership challenge.
The Herald understands those who believe Luxon should leave his position will make their move in the next fortnight.
The Herald also revealed senior MP and party whip Stuart Smith tried to present Luxon with evidence of what sources said was flagging caucus support for the National leader before Easter. To Luxon’s critics, he ghosted the party whip to avoid facing his flagging confidence in caucus.
As the party whip, Smith is tasked with the job of monitoring caucus and serving as a conduit between the back bench and Luxon as National leader.
Speaking to TVNZ’s Q&A with Jack Tame this morning, senior minister Chris Bishop denied knowing about the “ghosting” incident or that he would run for leader if the position was vacant, insisting Luxon was the man for the job.
Rumours of disquiet in the party have stirred since the dire polling of early March.
The Taxpayers’ Union-Curia poll then showed National at 28.4%. That bombshell poll position was only a couple of points above its disastrous 2020 wipeout, when Judith Collins led the National Party.
More recent polling by Talbot Mills had the National Party about the same, at 29%.
Labour was ahead on 36%, NZ First was on 15%, the Green Party was on 7%, Act was on 8% and Te Pāti Māori was on 2%.
Talbot Mills also polls for the Labour Party.
Julia Gabel is a Wellington-based political reporter. She joined the Herald in 2020 and has most recently focused on data journalism.