Labour senses chances as Kapa-Kingi’s new party deepens Māori seats turmoil – Adam Pearse

Jackson managed to recover as he stated “We don’t need those sorts of games”, amid the left bloc’s effort to unseat the coalition Government, knowing full well prolonged turmoil for Te Pāti Māori, which won six of the seven seats in 2023, only increases his party’s chances of winning them back.

But he didn’t shy away from declaring the advantage Kapa-Kingi’s decision would give Labour.

“I would have thought that’s quite limiting and restrictive for [Mariameno], but she’s made her decision,” he said on Tuesday.

“I think what it does though is open up things for our candidate, I think Willow [Willow-Jean Prime] is going to be a real chance now.

“I’m not saying Mariameno’s no chance, obviously she’s got a following, but I would have thought that following would have been stronger with Te Pāti Māori.”

Jackson is right to claim as much. The race for Te Tai Tokerau was already set to be hotly contested between Kapa-Kingi, Prime and Green candidate Hūhana Lyndon, even before the incumbent went out on her own.

The electorate spans not only the Northland region but includes everything north of the Auckland Harbour Bridge, as well as parts of West Auckland; areas where Te Pāti Māori president John Tamihere will hold considerable sway.

Tamihere and Kapa-Kingi have locked horns for months, the MP trying to oust Tamihere as president and Tamihere vowing revenge on Kapa-Kingi’s whānau for likening him to a dictator.

The obvious and extensive conflict between the two doesn’t guarantee all the support Kapa-Kingi received through her association with Te Pāti Māori will vanish. No doubt many look dimly on how the party tried and failed to expel Kapa-Kingi and see her as a strong advocate for a region very proud of its identity.

But with the potential addition of former Tai Tokerau MP Hone Harawira, who is rumoured to be among the contenders to become Te Pāti Māori’s new candidate, there will be at least four well-known or highly ranked candidates all vying for cut-through in a congested race that was decided by just 500 votes in 2023.

It’s a reality Prime will need to confront if she wishes to win the seat for the first time. On Tuesday, the former Northland MP refused to address the implications of Kapa-Kingi’s announcement, not recognising the opportunity Jackson latched on to.

While Prime isn’t wrong to direct the focus on to policy, voters will look for reassurance from their representative, in light of the messy, public spat that engulfed their current MP for months.

Kapa-Kingi separating herself from Te Pāti Māori, at least as an independent, seemed the most viable option, given the division, which was in part sparked by her seeking a change in party leadership last year.

A court ruling proving Kapa-Kingi’s attempted expulsion didn’t align with the party’s constitution offered a slight but ultimately futile chance at reconciliation. Kapa-Kingi now claims she was never truly welcomed back after the ruling, something the party contests.

So after an unsuccessful attempt to become a party leader with Te Pāti Māori, Kapa-Kingi has made herself one. She has until June 11 to register and amass 500 paying party members (Kapa-Kingi claims she has about 200 as of Tuesday).

There is divided opinion on whether Kapa-Kingi will face a roadblock over the name of her party. Labour’s Chris Hipkins and National’s Chris Bishop both claim that naming a party after the electorate falls foul of the Electoral Commission’s rules, while Act’s David Seymour believes no violation exists.

The Electoral Commission rules state a name must not be “indecent, offensive, excessively long or likely to cause confusion to or mislead electors”. The commission hasn’t yet received an application from Kapa-Kingi so hasn’t assessed her party’s name.

It was one of several confusing aspects to Kapa-Kingi’s party launch. While its name pertains to a specific electorate, Kapa-Kingi hasn’t ruled out candidates standing in other electorates around the country, saying that decision hasn’t been made.

Aside from a focus on “whare, whānau and whenua [housing, family and land]”, Kapa-Kingi had little to offer regarding the party’s policy platform, although she has indicated it was unlikely to differ greatly from Te Pāti Māori.

While the likes of Labour avoid questions about what parties they could work with, Kapa-Kingi showed some maturity in saying she would be open to discussions with Labour and National if it meant putting Te Tai Tokerau closer to the Cabinet table. Prime Minister Christopher Luxon dismissed the prospect as “irrelevant”.

Kapa-Kingi remained largely civil in her comments about her soon-to-be former party, allowing herself an allegation of misogyny before claiming she wants to move on.

It appears Te Pāti Māori has also given up the mud-slinging. Of the MP they once described as “rogue”, co-leaders Rawiri Waititi and Debbie Ngarewa-Packer wished Kapa-Kingi well.

After refusing to resolve a poisoned relationship for months, one could look to the 1.5-percentage-point bump in today’s Taxpayers’ Union-Curia poll as a sign of the benefits derived from keeping one’s head down.

What isn’t helpful is being unable to prevent murmuring of further departures from the party.

The future of the party’s global star Hana-Rāwhiti Maipi-Clarke has not been free from speculation, although the co-leaders insist the Hauraki-Waikato MP isn’t going anywhere.

Tāmaki Makaurau MP Oriini Kaipara appeared to indicate to Stuff she was considering her options before a confusing claim she had never made the comment, saying it was made in error by one of her staff.

Screenshots of the text exchange between the journalist and the staffer prove the comment were made and attributed to Kaipara. For the co-leaders to protest how the comment was conveyed seems beside the point, just as it is rough for a brand new staff member to take the blame, instead of the MP taking responsibility, even if the mistake wasn’t hers.

Waititi’s claims of alleged agendas from the media against his party somewhat undercut his support of the press he voiced on Tuesday morning in relation to 1News political editor Maiki Sherman’s resignation, a journalist who Waititi had previously refused to answer as she interrogated him over the party’s turmoil.

Former Māori Party leader Te Ururoa Flavell has warned instability in the party will push some voters back to Labour, a sentiment endorsed by the major party’s dominance in the party vote across all seven Māori electorates in 2023.

Continuing to lack cohesion and litigating minor scraps will only go to benefit Jackson and his team, who won’t be rushing to interrupt their main opponents.

Adam Pearse is the Deputy Political Editor and part of the NZ Herald’s Press Gallery team based at Parliament in Wellington. He has worked for NZME since 2018, reporting for the Northern Advocate in Whangārei and the Herald in Auckland.