Move over, Winston: Shane Jones deserves credit for New Zealand First poll surge – Audrey Young

National is up slightly, but at 29.8% – not enough for Prime Minister Christopher Luxon to be safe.

Surging to more than 13% (up 3.9 points), NZ First is at the same support it received 30 years ago when it stormed into Government in the first MMP election on the back of its anti-immigration policies.

Curia pollster David Farrar has broken down NZ First’s support in a Patreon post and says that 52% of its current supporters voted National in 2023, while only 3% voted Labour. That will be a huge worry for National, which would lose 11 MPs on current polling. NZ First would more than double its caucus from 8 to 17.

People tend to credit leader Winston Peters for the rise in NZ First’s support this term. But Peters has not changed his playbook.

It is unlikely his party surged because he repaired diplomatic relations with the Cook Islands, welcome though it was.

The real difference this term has been the role and voice of deputy leader Shane Jones and his political megaphone. While he can be bombastic in the House, he has had a cut-through outside it in promoting the party as champions of economic development and jobs in the regions, and as unapologetic interventionists. And, of course, he has been more visible in the past six weeks during the fuel crisis with responsibility for fuel supply.

Finance Minister Nicola Willis has been doing a superb communications job, but when an economic crisis could be just around the corner, when people are feeling insecure, pragmatic responses are more attractive than the “lessons of Covid” that she and Luxon have been delivering on loop.

Speaking of Covid, colleague Derek Cheng has dug out the transcripts of former PM Jacinda Ardern’s evidence to the second phase of the royal commission into Covid.

It is easy to become inured to outrageous comments by United States President Donald Trump, so frequent have they become, yet he managed to shock much of the world yesterday with a contemptible post against Iran: “A whole civilization will die tonight, never to be brought back again. I don’t want that ‌to ⁠happen, but it probably will,” he posted on Truth Social.

It demanded more than just an acknowledgement by the Prime Minister, and Luxon’s response went further than he has gone before, describing Trump’s comments as “unprecedented” and “unhelpful”. The criticism was more in the tone of voice than the actual words used. Labour leader Chris Hipkins called Luxon “spineless” for not going harder, which is easy to say when you are not in the thick of procuring oil to prevent an economic disaster.

Foreign Minister Winston Peters was holding talks in Washington DC with Secretary of State Marco Rubio, including the possibility of getting oil sourced from the US.

And Luxon’s response does not have more or less spine than that of Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, who said: “I don’t think it’s appropriate to use language such as ‌that ⁠from the President of the United States, and I think it will cause some concern.”

If you are interested in how the cursed war began, go no further than this excellent piece that we’ve run from the New York Times by Jonathan Swan and Maggie Haberman. It pieces together the meetings in the White House Situation Room before Trump gave the green light and the interesting role of Vice-President JD Vance.

It was hard to reconcile some of the supportive speeches last week in the first reading of a member’s bill that would exempt parody and satire from New Zealand’s copyright law. It flew through its first reading, with the only party opposing it being NZ First.

It is in the name of Green list MP Kahurangi Carter, and it would bring New Zealand’s law into line with just about every other country we like to be compared with.

But judging by the fulsome support, you would hardly have guessed that, from 2007 to 2017, Parliament had a rule expressly forbidding the use of parliamentary television footage in any medium for satire, ridicule or denigration. It was something that the late Sir Michael Cullen promoted in the rule book, Standing Orders.

The Greens opposed it at the time, and one of its former MPs, Gareth Hughes, in 2011 drew up the bill for the member’s ballot that was subsequently inherited by Carter and drawn out this term.

• The documentary Prime Minister,about the public and private life of Jacinda Ardern during her five years at the top, has been named as a finalist for two Emmy awards: Best Documentary and Outstanding Politics and Government Documentary. It was co-produced by Ardern’s husband, Clarke Gayford, and the winners will be announced in New York at the end of May.

• Pity poor Dale Stephens, a long-serving National Party member and veteran candidate. Labour’s Cushla Tangaere-Manuel seized upon his appointment to the board of Sport New Zealand as “jobs for mates” (as if Labour has clean hands on that score). Stephens, who is National’s candidate in Christchurch Central this year, would have to resign from the board if he won. His appointment, with so little time until the election, suggests he has no hope of winning.

“Christopher Luxon could walk on water and the mainstream media would report that he couldn’t swim.” – Journalist Sean Plunket on The Platform, grumpy that some coverage of the latest poll results angled on National remaining in the 20s.

Who is the new Minister for the Environment? (Answer at the bottom of this article.)

Goes to Donald Trump. The standing of the US President sank to new depths after his threat yesterday against Iran: “A whole civilization will die tonight.” Unbelievable. Unforgivable. Unhinged.

Goes to Tama Potaka, in sympathy. The Prime Minister may have forgotten he had a Māori National MP in his Cabinet when asked on breakfast TV this week, but we haven’t forgotten you, Tama.

Covid inquiry: ‘You divided the nation’ – How royal commission grilled Ardern behind closed doors

Oil shock: Peters says US open to supplying fuel to Pacific if Iran war continues

Fuel support: ‘Most New Zealanders would understand’ – Luxon on Govt’s limited fuel support

Poll results: National fails to clear 30% in latest poll results as NZ First surges

Analysis – economic outlook:Stagflation a bleak possibility that could put the Reserve Bank in a tough position – Jenée Tibshraeny

Ardern documentary: Gayford ‘bewildered and baffled’ as Ardern doco gets double Emmy nod

Cabinet reshuffle: Luxon’s reshuffle cuts number of National Māori MPs in Cabinet to 1

Appointment controversy: Labour claims ‘jobs for mates’ as National candidate appointed to Sport NZ board

Greyhound racing ban: Greyhound bosses admit they’ve lost battle to keep sport alive

Gambling laws: NZ stays away from Aussie-style ban on sports betting ads, online casino rules coming

Quiz answer: Nicola Grigg, the MP for Selwyn, who got it from Penny Simmonds in last week’s reshuffle.

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