Dave Rennie faces major All Blacks selection challenges amid injuries – Paul Lewis
Few All Blacks coaches have faced the injury worries Dave Rennie has been forced to contemplate this season, even though they are the unpleasant, ever-present companion of modern rugby – with bigger, faster players involved in many more collisions than in the past, all within the increased speed of the game.
Injury rates haven’t altered much, but time on the sidelines has.
Maybe Scott Robertson did it harder, losing eight major players to retirement or overseas (Sam Whitelock, Brodie Retallick, Aaron Smith, Dane Coles, Richie Mo’unga, Shannon Frizell, Leicester Fainga’anuku and Nepo Laulala) after the 2023 World Cup.
Most of those departures were expected, however.
Rennie has lost senior players he would have counted on: two premier locks, Fabian Holland and Scott Barrett and leading prop Tamaiti Williams (plus Tyrel Lomax missing most of the season).
There is a question mark over Will Jordan’s ability to make the July tests, plus X-factor wing Caleb Tangitau’s season-long absence.
Add Fehi Fineanganofo’s impending departure for England (reports he is finding a way out of his contract with Newcastle have yet to be confirmed) and you can see where depth is an issue, and where doors previously shut are ajar: lock, prop, wing plus the blindside flanker conundrum.
Rennie will announce a 34-man squad soon and will likely be split forwards-backs 19-15 or 20-14.
For the purposes of this exercise, we’re assuming a 20-14 squad, with three hookers, six props, five locks, six loose forwards, three halfbacks, two first-fives, four midfielders and five outside backs.
The alternative is a 19-15 split, with Fainga’anuku potentially affecting the make-up of the squad if he is selected as a centre or wing who can play openside flanker. So here’s a look at those positions still open in Rennie’s first squad and where playoffs form could decide selection:
Loosehead prop
Lomax, Fletcher Newell and Pasilio Tosi are secure at tighthead, as are Ethan de Groot and Ollie Norris at loosehead. The sixth spot seems to be between Xavier Numia and All Blacks prop George Bower. Ofa Tu’ungafasi is an option but the veteran was part of a Blues scrum that went alarmingly backwards against a weakened Chiefs outfit, surrendering a try – not something selectors like to see.
Numia and Bower met in Friday night’s Crusaders-Hurricanes match, Numia shading things as the Canes’ scrum had an edge, with honours even around the field.
However, the Crusaders’ 47-14 victory was affected by preservation of leading players for the playoffs; there were more rotations than a lawnmower blade and the derby suffered in the second half and as a selection guide.
Lock
Certainties: Tupou Vaai, Josh Lord, Sam Darry and Patrick Tuipulotu (though he too is injured at present). The fifth lock could be one of Jamie Hannah, Naitoa Ah Kuoi or Josh Beehre. Of those three, Hannah had the most impactful game before being subbed off, clearly with the playoffs in mind. Ah Kuoi worked hard, as ever, and the choice may come down to the selectors’ desire for a tighter lock who hews away at the breakdown (Ah Kuoi) or the more mobile Hannah. The Blues’ Beehre (who had a good early season) probably dropped out of calculations, replaced during the 59-34 hiding by the Chiefs. Holland is apparently close to full health again and could be included in the squad as a training partner.
Blindside flanker
Loose forward certainties Ardie Savea, Wallace Sititi, and Peter Lakai could be joined by Simon Parker and Samipeni Finau. Both can play No 6 and No 8. They offer lineout options and the extra heft important at test level. Fainga’anuku covers 7 although Savea, Sititi and Lakai can play all three loose forward positions, relevant if Rennie rests Savea for part or all the July home tests.
Finau had another strong game for the Chiefs and has timed his run well, with Parker rested ahead of the playoffs. He scored a try, carried consistently over the gain line, did well at the front of the lineout (including a steal) and appears to have curbed his tendency to give away multiple penalties.
Anton Segner was overshadowed in a beaten team; his hopes for inclusion may rest on Rennie’s use of Fainga’anuku. His presence may mean Segner will have to wait until the expanded squad for the tour of South Africa, though he will still have to overcome the challenge of Christian Lio-Willie.
The two-test All Black has been the best loosie on the park in the wins over the Chiefs and Canes, hard to ignore. His work rate is immense; he was going just as strongly at the end against the Hurricanes as at the beginning, highly impressive form.
It would be no surprise to see him as the sixth loose forward ahead of Segner if Rennie opts for six instead of five, with Fainga’anuku as cover.
Outside backs
Wing has the fewest options, with Caleb Clarke and Leroy Carter (also injured at present), the only specialists and squad certainties along with Jordan and Ruben Love, though it’s entirely possible Love could be selected at No 10.
The fifth outside back will probably be a wing and could well be Fainga’anuku or Jordan. Fullback is well covered within the squad (McKenzie, Love, Jordie and Beauden Barrett). If Fineanganofo heads overseas, other candidates include Chay Fihaki, another wing/fullback option. His all-round game fully overshadowed that of Canes’ wing Kini Naholo in an admittedly one-sided match. Emoni Narawa is only due back from injury for the semi-finals and will have to hit form fast.
The Hurricanes’ Josh Moorby is another wing/fullback contender though he too was kept quiet on Friday night and was eventually subbed off. If Fineanganofo isn’t available, Fainga’anuku or Jordan may plug that gap.