Duncan Garner: Here’s the real threat to Māori, so why have they missed it?

The dust has settled on another Waitangi Day dominated by the pointless, oxygen-sucking, short-term sideshows like David Seymour and his soon to be binned Treaty Principles Bill.

And once again, one of the real and genuinely fast-growing threats to Māori and their place in New Zealand has been ignored.

We resolved nothing; see you next year. The 2025 Waitangi debate about Māori-crown relations – about two peoples living together in a modern nation – was boring, banal and went nowhere we haven’t been for months, if not years.

I believe it’s irrelevant and misses the point. This is because I think we’re all ignoring a genuine issue: the rapid growth in our population, fuelled by continued high levels of immigration.

Despite record departures in the past year, we still gained population through migrant arrivals. We are still seen as an attractive country – and given all the current trouble in the world, are likely to be so for some time to come. We put up relatively few barriers and ask few questions, and because of this, lack detailed understanding of who’s come to live here and what their skills and intentions are.

In 2023, we welcomed about 240,000 migrants. When departures were counted our net gain was still 120,000. In the year ended September, the net gain was 30,600.

Is New Zealand going to be a place where immigrants put down roots or merely a stop on the way to Australia? How do we accommodate people whether they’re staying here temporarily or settling permanently? What about the infrastructure needed to support this? At my son’s primary schools we had kids from 50 countries in the playground speaking their own language and bringing their own customs. That doesn’t come without challenges for the schooling system, for teachers and for the scarce resources on offer.

In many ways, these new New Zealanders are brave by leaving familiar homelands, often parents and other family, for a fresh shot at life. They’re here for a better life, to bring up families, perhaps to enjoy better educational opportunities, to save to buy houses and set up businesses. They’re hard-working, law-abiding citizens who will often work in jobs and do hours that many others won’t. So I think we can learn from them – their hunger, their drive, their willingness to save and forge a better life is to be commended.

My concerns are not about where people come from but the impact of a rapidly changing demographic on Māori identity, especially when Māori are at risk of being outnumbered by other ethnic groups.