Duncan Garner: Our politicians need to get brave or we’ll leave our kids debt, dysfunction and division

Let’s be clear: we’ve got money problems and unless we do something about them now, our kids and grandkids, are likely to pay a hefty price down the track. This is not something you’ll hear the politicians yelling about in Question Time. It’s long-term, and complicated; the kind of issue that gets buried under a pile of press releases, whiteboards, diagrams, reports and spreadsheets. But it matters, big time.

This week I buried myself in Treasury’s latest 40-year outlook document He Tirohanga Mokopuna: Long-term Fiscal Statement 2025. The te reo translates to “a grandchild’s perspective” but a more direct title could be something like, ‘Your future – ignore at your peril.’

New Zealand is spending more than it earns, and it’s only going to get worse. We are living beyond our means and those in power with the ability to do something about it are selfishly only worried about their immediate political survival. Telling you nothing needs to happen right now is disingenuous at best and a downright lie at its worst.

The Treasury says government policies are not sustainable for the long term. Without change, by 2065 government spending per person will be double what it is today. Health spending will double, interest costs will be six times higher, defence spending will quadruple and spending on education and welfare will also grow. A much smaller share of public resources will be available for younger generations.

Let’s say we make no changes to current welfare and superannuation payments and carry on as we are. By 2065, the retirement age will have to be 72, not 65, and GST will need to be 32%, not 15%, to afford the cost.

We are hurtling towards a future where the country will be permanently broke, and we’ll be permanently borrowing just to keep the lights on in hospitals and the superannuation payments flowing.

The core problem? An ageing population, a shrinking tax base, and politicians who don’t want to deal with reality.

John Key suspended Crown contributions to the Super Fund and said he’d resign if the eligibility age was raised under National of the level of payments declined. Bill English then lifted the age of eligibility to 67, to take effect in 2030. It was the bravest and most honest anyone has been on NZ Super.

Then Labour overturned that, returning it to 65. Winston Peters has carved out a career saying NZ Super is affordable, leave it alone. Labour is saying the same thing. They’re all in political la la land.