Duncan Garner: Why I’m picking Christopher Luxon won’t lead National into the next election
Will PM Christopher Luxon be farewelling the top job in the coming months? Photo / Getty Images
Poor old Christopher Luxon. His days as Prime Minister are coming to an end.
To be blunt, he never had widespread popular support; it was always fickle and so it’s proved.
He’s been going backwards - even an invisible Chris Hipkins has somehow kept up - and the “Luxon gaffes” have kept coming in 2025.
If anyone has kept Hipkins and Labour in the race, it’s Luxon thanks to his muddling performances and his inability to get this economy out of recession. A trainwreck interview on Newstalk ZB last week over Andrew Bayly’s resignation from cabinet – where Luxon couldn’t give a simple yes or no answer – has been a trigger for his MPs and they’re in the early stages of overthrowing him.
I’ve heard National Party stalwarts Sir John Key, Steven Joyce and even Murray McCully may have met up and talked about it, but what role any are playing is unclear. There’s also talk that former minister Paula Bennett might be used to communicate the news to Luxon. She’s been a hugely successful fundraiser for the party and may be seen as a future president.
I believe Luxon is the least effective PM in 30 years. The consistent criticism is that he and his Government have achieved nothing, done nothing and never will. The public widely criticise him. My inbox is full of emails targeting his inability to do anything of substance or consequence, and his lack of a spine is often pointed out.
All prime ministers have their detractors and supporters, but the emails and comments I see daily are almost 100% detractors – and many of these people voted for Luxon.
Jacinda Ardern was despised by certain groups when she left, and still is, but she had, and still retains, a loyal fan base. Luxon can point to no such base of support, even among the business community who must surely be wondering when is actually going to do something.
Honestly, I don’t think he knows what to do or how to do it, and if that seems harsh, show me evidence of why it’s not true.
There are fears he could lead National to defeat in 2026 after just one term. Naturally, the party doesn’t want that, which is why it has decided this masquerade of a PM of action needs to end.