Guyon Espiner: What a second Trump term might mean for NZ

OPINION: In Winston Churchill’s 1898 book The Story of the Malakand Field Force, capturing his time as a cavalry officer and war correspondent in India, he wrote that “nothing in life is so exhilarating as to be shot at without result”.

Exhilaration – and perhaps the presence of mind to deploy stage craft – seemed to propel Donald Trump to his feet, stall his Secret Service agents, and pump his fist in the air, to the delight of his adoring fans, at the Pennsylvania rally where he survived an assassination attempt.

The indelible image inked that day could propel him to the presidency again, even if Kamala Harris stands a greater chance of heading him off than the decrepit Joe Biden did.

But the odds of a Trump victory in November are great enough to consider what a second term might mean for New Zealand.

If you thought the problem with late-stage capitalism was the American-led order and globalisation – and hey, I devoured Naomi Klein’s 1999 book No Logo: Taking Aim at the Brand Bullies, too – then wait until we have US withdrawal and de-globalisation.

Trump, and his running mate JD Vance, hate free trade, globalisation and the rules-based order. For them, it’s America First.

None of this is good for NZ. We are the little kid in a playground plagued by bullies. We need a rules-based order to survive and thrive. Trump’s trade and foreign policy will already be creating anxiety in the Beehive.

His website says his trade policy is to “impose tariffs on FOREIGN producers through a system of universal baseline tariffs on most imported goods” (the caps are his), which could be set at 10%.

A trade war with China (our largest trading partner) seems inevitable. Trump is promising “aggressive new restrictions on Chinese ownership” of US assets. He’s even threatening to ban Americans from investing in China and prohibiting imports of Chinese electronics, steel and pharmaceuticals.