Danyl McLauchlan: A new world (dis) order
Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign Affairs Winston Peters, pictured at the United Nations, now faces a diplomatic crisis. Photo / Getty Images
In Donald Trump’s inaugural address, he declared the US “will once again consider itself a growing nation – one that increases our wealth, expands our territory … and carries our flag into new and beautiful horizons”. Greenland, the Panama Canal, Canada and a depopulated Gaza have all been identified as potential acquisitions for this new imperial project.
Trump’s supporters argue his administration is merely adjusting to reality – that the “rules-based” international order of sovereign nations that followed World War II, and which peaked after the collapse of the Soviet Union, is now obsolete.
New Secretary of State Marco Rubio indicated in an interview that the liberal democratic framework imposed by US military and economic power in recent decades was an anomaly – “a product of the end of the Cold War, but eventually you were going to reach back to a point where you had a multipolar world, multi-great powers in different parts of the planet”.
The US is now asserting itself as an openly expansionist regime aggressively pursuing its own self-interest, just like its geopolitical rivals, Russia and China. All that is solid melts into air.
New Zealand’s place in this rapidly emerging new world order is very unclear. It would be nice to pretend that nothing has changed and remain detached, enjoying our splendid isolation in the remote South Pacific and selling milk powder to whoever wants it.
Warning signs
But our deteriorating relationship with the Cook Islands is an ominous warning that we will not be exempt from this era of global instability. The Cooks have been self-governing since 1965. New Zealand takes responsibility for defence and aspects of its foreign policy, and subsidises development and some public services, primarily via our aid budget.
Under a 2001 joint declaration, both nations are required to consult on defence and security issues. But Cook Islands Prime Minister Mark Brown’s visit to Beijing to sign a “comprehensive strategic partnership” with China, the details of which he refuses to disclose, threatens that relationship.
Brown insists the partnership is none of New Zealand’s business; that it relates to infrastructure, trade and tourism rather than defence issues. Brown is a democratically elected leader but there’s no evidence he has a mandate for such a radical realignment in foreign policy. Tina Browne, leader of the opposition Democratic Party has described his state visit as “insane”.
China has been expanding its influence across the Pacific for decades. It uses development and aid to advance its diplomatic and security interests – as do Australia and New Zealand; as did the US until Trump and Elon Musk moved this month to dismantle its international aid organisation.
China’s aid has acquired a certain infamy: it often comes as loans rather than donations, constructing large infrastructure projects – typically sports stadiums – that small Pacific nations cannot maintain, at repayment rates their economies cannot afford, a practice known as “debt trap diplomacy”.