Australia’s immigration debate heats up - what it might mean for NZers
Talking tough: Australian Opposition leader Peter Dutton. Photo / Getty Images
Opinion: Early election drums are beating in Australia, accompanied by the potent issue of cutting immigration – a sure vote lure during these times of chronic housing shortages and rising layoffs.
Anthony Albanese has previously said his Labor government will go full term to May next year but the odds of an earlier election are firming, driven by the likelihood of interest rate cuts.
The markets say there is an 82% chance of a rate cut in August and 100% by September, offering relief for many cash-strapped and mortgaged families.
History is also against Albanese. Australians have elected eight new governments since World War II. Of the seven that preceded the Albanese government, none went the full three years before going to an election.
Peter Dutton, the ex-Queensland policeman who made his name in politics as the tough-as-nails home affairs minister under former conservative prime minister Scott Morrison, is now the alternative prime minister.
He made clear in late May that savage immigration cuts will be at the forefront of his election campaign – capitalising on the wide public unease over the surging number of incomers.
For the 12 months to September 2023, net migration was nearly 550,000, an unprecedented level for Australia. (Net migration is the difference between the numbers entering and leaving the country long term.)
Voters in pressure points such as western Sydney and southeast Queensland feel that number on their roads, in their schools and especially in the compressed rental housing market.
In late May, Dutton said that if elected prime minister, he would cut net migration from a recent average of around 260,000 to 160,000.
That’s a big number – big enough for New Zealand to be worried.